Newsletter summary
Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded to around 15500, the market focused on carry-over stocks and imported cotton quotas; Henan peanut production areas drought relief, the spot market is strong; pig prices rise due to the increase in the number of second breeding market; Apple spot prices are weak, the market is volatile; red jujube Zheng jujube or shock bottom, spot prices are slightly loose; corn futures prices stagflation fall, market supply and demand loose; white sugar continues low consolidation, the market pays attention to the impact of El Ni ñ o phenomenon.
Text of news flash
Cotton market ushered in new developments this week, the cotton market focus turned to the weather changes in the producing areas, Zheng cotton futures prices rose. Spot market, May 24 cotton spot index CCI3128B reported 16408 yuan / ton, the spot price difference fell to-1033, while polyester staple fiber stabilized at 7420 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber reported 12950 yuan / ton. At the same time, CYIndexC32S quotes 22750 yuan / ton, FCYIndexC32S (imported cotton yarn price index) quotes 23301 yuan / ton, and the effective forecast is 1081. In the international market, the price of US EMOTM to Hong Kong is 85.Drakeplayingroulette.6 cents per pound, Brazil M arrival price is 82Drakeplayingroulette.2 cents per pound. After a sharp correction in prices last week, Zheng Mian futures prices rebounded this week, close to 15500 points. The market needs to pay close attention to the release of inventory surplus and imported cotton quotas in the later period. As the textile industry enters the off-season, the downstream market demand weakens slightly, the opening rate of yarn mills decreases, the inventory of finished products increases, the overall supply is adequate, and the weakening of the demand side may have an impact on cotton prices. In addition, Aksu region encountered severe convective weather, resulting in local serious disaster, it is necessary to pay attention to the affected area and follow-up weather conditions. Technical analysis shows that Zheng Mian's main 09 contract closed down at 15540 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from the previous day, and its position decreased by 15034 hands to 534000 hands. MACD red column growth, DIFF and DEA close to gold fork, KDJ index also formed a golden fork, indicating the improvement of technical indicators. In terms of operation, it is suggested that the gin factory should consider selling unsold resources in the old year when the price rebounds, and can purchase resources in the new year on the disk. The trend of Peanut Market rainfall Mitigation in Henan producing areaDrakeplayingrouletteAfter the drought, the market has gradually changed. The spot peanut in the domestic market remains stable, and the quotation in some areas is strong, but the sluggish demand leads to increased wait-and-see mood between buyers and sellers, slow supply circulation, and the actual transaction is mostly based on shipping willingness and quality. The overall trading volume is small. In the import market, the quotation of Sudanese milled rice in Huangdao Port is about 9300, and the quality affects the price, but the inventory is general, the transaction is slow, and the price remains stable. The willingness to acquire oil plants has weakened, the arrival volume of most oil plants has been stable, car pressure has occurred at the Laiyang plant, some oil plants have arrived mainly on imported rice, and the contract price of Laiyang Luhua has been reduced by 100 to 8800. Fundamental analysis shows that during the empty window of the new season, both sides have their own saws, the total amount of import orders is halved, inventories in all sectors of the industry are on the low side, oil factory acquisitions are coming to an end, and traders have different views on shipments. The increase of species in the new season is expected to form a high negative position, weather speculation variables still exist. The strategy recommended is range concussion, 10-01 positive cover or high altitude far moon. The core logic lies in frequent pressure at the end of the oil plant acquisition, no collapse in the pessimistic expectation on the spot, continuous delivery of rigid demand, and strong tenacity in the quotation of some varieties. The area increase in the new quarter is expected to be difficult to reverse, partial expectations may move back to the far-moon contract. The risk tip is extreme weather. The market sentiment of live pigs is strong, but the market volume is still large, but the cautious attitude towards high-priced pigs leads to strong sentiment, so pig prices go up. The market volume of second breeding in some areas is still large, but the cautious attitude towards high-priced pigs in most areas has led to a limited increase in pig prices. The uptick sentiment at the breeding end is strong, but the downstream order transaction is poor after the increase in the price of white strips, which is restrained.DrakeplayingrouletteThe height of the rise in pig prices. The highest price of the main contract this week reached 18485 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 18075 yuan / ton, and closed at 18225 yuan / ton, with a position of about 71000 hands. Fundamental analysis points out that supply is expected to continue to decline in the third and fourth quarters, while demand in the third quarter is slightly higher than that in the second quarter, and the increase in demand in the fourth quarter is obvious, and the overall supply and demand will become increasingly tight. As pig prices rise again, weight loss or stop switching to weight gain, live stocks begin to increase again. In the long-short logic of the market, bears believe that although production capacity has been eliminated, the weight is high, which can make up for part of the capacity gap, and the occurrence of consumption substitution further weakens the support of demand for pig prices; many think that pig stocks are at a new low, capacity removal is more in place, weight can not be made up, and seasonal demand will gradually improve. Bears focus on lower-than-expected gains, while bulls focus on upward trends. Strategy recommendations are bearish, spot increases are likely to be less than expected, 9-11 anti-sets or every high 09. The core logic includes that the weight is still high, offsetting the elimination of some production capacity, market players are cautious, speculative sentiment weakens, and pig prices are difficult to rise sharply. The low price of substitutes weakens the support of consumption to pig prices and suppresses the rise of pig prices. Spot price pressure bar, Eryu followed, the actual negative 09 contract. Risk hint is that the spot rally is not over yet.