News summary
This week, rebar is recommended to build a straight set at a low positiononlinecasinonodepositbonusfreespins, the 10-1 price difference has a margin of safety; the price difference between coils and coils fluctuates, so it is recommended to wait and see; the differentiation of steel profits can increase the profits of steel mills. Risk factors include accelerated special debt, poor policies, and changes in export demand.
Newsletter text
[Strategic Suggestions for Steel Futures Market]
Recently, rebar futures have fluctuated in inter-month trading, while hot coil futures have fluctuated around parity. Judging from historical seasonal trends, especially in May and June, the price trend from October to January is often not obvious due to the long distance from the delivery time of the main contract.
Analyzing the fundamentals, although the supply and demand of rebar have increased, favorable market expectations have been digested, putting certain pressure on recent contracts. However, for the 2410 contract, the market is expected to continue to receive positive support due to the continued issuance of special bonds and treasury bonds during the year. At present, there is limited room for price differences to go downward, and investors can consider placing a long rebar 10-1 contract when spot demand improves.
Risk factors that need to be noted include: upside risks brought by the accelerated issuance of special bonds, and downside risks brought by the policy effect falling short of expectations and the continued downturn in the spot market.
[Suggestions on market strategy for price difference of spiral price]
This week, the price difference between spiral snails showed a volatile and weak trend. At present, the fundamentals of hot coils and rebar are variable. Although the current inventory pressure on hot coils is high, its actual and expected performance is relatively good, and its price support is strong. Rebar, on the other hand, relies on fundamentals driven by lower yields. In the future, hot-coil exports may face downward pressure and may resonate with high supply. Rebar may be adjusted back after the favorable policies are digested, while demand in the off-season is still to be verified by the market. Therefore, the current trend driving force of the spiral price difference is not obvious, and it is recommended to focus on wait-and-see.
Risk factors may include: upward risks brought by blast furnace production restrictions and weak infrastructure recovery, weakening manufacturing and export demand, and downward risks brought by the rapid commissioning of coil rolling lines.
[Analysis of profit prospects of the steel industry]
This week, the trend of steel spot profits and futures market profits diverged. The narrowing of market profits was mainly due to macro inflation logic, especially the sharp rise in the prices of resource products such as iron ore. From a fundamental perspective, the supply of furnace materials is relatively loose. As the logic of inflation is digested, furnace materials prices have the potential to be lowered, which provides a possible opportunity to expand steel mills 'profits.
Potential risk factors include: upside risks that may be brought by the recovery of terminal demand and the recovery of raw material supply, and downside risks that may be caused by the rise in molten iron and the decline in terminal demand.