It's May 24thWemixnftgamePenghua Fund, Guoshou Security Fund and other institutions have issued announcements to improve the accuracy of the net value of their debt-based products, all due to large redemptions of products.
The reporter combed and found that since May, more than 20 institutions have issued announcements to improve the accuracy of the net value of product shares. For a long time, since the beginning of this year, nearly 200 debt bases have been announced to improve the accuracy of net worth.
To investigate the reason, some people in the industry pointed out to reporters that the recent supply-side disturbance has increased, and the volatility of the bond market has increased in the shock. However, since April, the rising scale of financial management, non-bank institutions with a lot of money and other allocation forces still form a potential support to the bond market, the pullback can focus on structural allocation opportunities.
The redemption tide reappears.
On May 24, the Guoshou Security Fund issued a notice that Guoshou Security Anyu pure bonds were regularly opened for half a year. Bond-type securities investment funds were redeemed in large amounts on May 23. In order to ensure that the interests of fund holders will not be adversely affected by the retention accuracy of the decimal point of the net value of shares, through consultation between the company and the fund custodian, Industrial Bank Co., Ltd., it is decided that the accuracy of the net share of the fund on May 23 will be retained to the 8th place after the decimal point, rounding to the ninth place after the decimal point.
On the same day, Penghua Fund, Morgan Asset Management and other institutions also issued announcements to improve the accuracy of the net value of their product shares, all due to large redemptions. Since May, more than 20 institutions, including Manulife Fund, Hongta Clay Fund and financing Fund, have issued announcements to improve the accuracy of debt base net worth, most of which are bond funds. In terms of product types, medium-and long-term pure debt funds account for the majority.
The reasons for redemption vary
According to the view of the industry, the large redemption of part of the debt base is related to the recent turmoil in the bond market, reflecting the cautious attitude of institutional investors to stop profits in time. On April 23, the central bank spoke about the risk of long-term debt, mentioning that the underlying logic of the decline in the yield of long-term treasury bonds is the lack of "safe assets" in the market. With the future issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the situation of "asset shortage" will be alleviated. Yields on long-term treasury bonds will also rise.
On April 24th, the "bond bull" slammed on the brakes, the main interbank interest rate bond yields rose sharply, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Overall, the volatility of long-end interest rate bonds is more obvious. In terms of debt base, the net value of many debt-based products fluctuated, especially many medium-and long-term pure debt funds suffered heavy losses. Wind data show that as of May 24, there are still nearly 900products out of more than 3000 medium-and long-term pure debt (calculated separately by different shares) in the market since the correction on April 24, with negative returns in the range.
The Hony far Fund also suggested that in addition to the influence of factors such as the increase in supply-side disturbances such as ultra-long-term bearish interest, the frequent emergence of real estate policies and the recovery of the equity market have also attracted a lot of funds to leave the bond market and transfer to equity products.
"in addition, at the end of each quarter, many institutional clients choose to redeem part of their debt-based products at the end of the quarter for purposes such as scale sprint because of the need for liquidity." A person from the marketing department of a public offering firm in Beijing told reporters, "if the organization of the product accounts for a relatively high proportion, then the redemption behavior of the organization will cause a larger fluctuation of net worth."
Some people in the industry told reporters that if the structure of the holders of the debt base itself is relatively single, it is also prone to large redemptions. "if the proportion of institutional holdings of debt-based institutions is very large, the proportion of individual holdings is very small, or if the proportion of individual holdings of debt bases is very large, and the proportion of institutional holdings is very small, then these two more extreme situations are more prone to large redemptions." "We believe that a healthier holding structure is a more balanced proportion of both institutional and individual holders," the person said. "
Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are marginal good for the bond market
Talking about the recent bond market, Chen Yiping, director of fixed income investment and director of the bond fund department of Haifutong Fund, said that the current level of risk-free return is basically in line with the trend of economic fundamentals. "judging from a series of policies recently issued by the government, the relevant departments are working hard to create a sound market environment for development and try their best to reduce the volatility of the bond market caused by market game sentiment." Take the ultra-long-term special treasury bond issuance plan recently announced by the Ministry of Finance as an example.WemixnftgameHe said that for the bond market, the landing of the special treasury bond issuance plan is conducive to stabilizing the supply expectation of ultra-long-term interest rate bonds, considering that the pace of issuance is slow, and the actual impact on the market may not be too great. It is only possible to cause a certain disturbance to the yield of ultra-long-term treasury bonds at individual issuance points.
"regardless of the monetary policy cycle or the volatility of capital levels, in the context of the shift between old and new kinetic energy, the long end of interest rate debt remains less flexible in 2024 only in terms of economic fundamentals." According to the analysis of some industry insiders, for the long end of interest rate debt, with the gradual convergence of interest rates and economic growth, it is difficult to break the long-end interest rate ceiling when the elasticity of economic fundamentals is small, and quarterly changes in supply and policy provide band trading opportunities.
"the recent arrangements for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been announced. The issuance window is as long as seven months, and the actual landing pace of the issue is relatively slow." Cheng Hao, deputy director of the fixed income department of Fidelity Fund and fund manager, believes that the issuing rhythm of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is relatively stable and marginal good for the bond market.
For the bond market, bond yields fell significantly after the issuance plan, mainly because the supply shock of bond issuance was smaller than expected and market concerns eased. On the whole, we believe that the expected difference in the rhythm of this special treasury bond issuance plan is marginally positive for the bond market, and the expectation of volatility in medium-and long-term treasury bond yields has improved. " "in the short term, as interest rates approach or even break through historical bottoms, the overall volatility of the bond market is also increasing, market participants are becoming more sensitive to negative factors, stop-profit sentiment is easy to trigger, and investment strategies should be flexible," Cheng said. "