Copper: COMEX squeezing positions to weakening Copper prices rise and fall
1. Macro. Overseas, the initial value of Markit comprehensive PMI in the United States in May is 54.Enjincryptogames.4, the highest level since April 2022, expected 51Enjincryptogames.2, 51.3 before AprilEnjincryptogamesAmong them, the initial PMI of manufacturing industry reached a two-month high of 50.9, with an expected value of 49.9 and 50 before April, while the initial PMI of service industry reached a 12-month high of 54.8, with an expected value of 51.2 and 51.3 before April. The US economy is once again showing an accelerated recovery, which also greatly reduces the urgency of interest rate cuts, but a soft landing is also expected to be stronger. On the domestic side, steady growth is still the tone, whether it is the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds or local real estate stimulus policies continue to boost market sentiment.
2. Fundamentals. In terms of copper concentrate, the domestic TC quotation dropped to negative, which indicates the current tight supply situation in the copper concentrate market, which also deepens the concern about the supply side. The centralized overhaul in the second quarter is higher than the same level in the same period last year, or partially reduces the supply pressure of copper concentrate. In terms of refined copper production, the estimated output of electrolytic copper in May was 977100 tons, down 0.8% from the previous month, an increase of 1.9% over the same period last year. According to production estimates, the shortage of copper concentrate did affect some smelting enterprises, but due to the abundance of crude copper and anode plates, this also made the decline in production lower than the market expected. On the import side, domestic net imports of refined copper rose 20.89 per cent in April from a year earlier to 281200 tons, a cumulative increase of 28.17 per cent, while scrap copper imports rose 3.6 per cent month-on-month to 181000 metal tons in April, an increase of 22.9 per cent and a cumulative increase of 55.5 per cent. In terms of inventory, as of May 24, global copper explicit inventory increased by 22000 tons to 645000 tons compared with last week (17), of which LME inventory increased by 9025 tons to 112675 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1247 tons to 18863 tons; domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 4700 tons to 415100 tons compared with last week, and bonded area stocks increased by 9100 tons to 99800 tons. On the demand side, the operating rate of copper processing enterprises in May is generally estimated to be lower than that of the same period last year. This week, from the weekly operating rate of copper sample rod enterprises, the operating rate of refined copper rods rose from 69.66% to 64.46%. Recycled copper rods rose from 23.77% to 29.01%, and the negative feedback of copper prices on downstream orders continued.
3. Viewpoint. The precious metals and non-ferrous markets weakened together this week, although it was guided by the Fed's expectation of delaying interest rate cuts, but on the whole, including the domestic and foreign stock markets, the mood suddenly cooled.EnjincryptogamesI think it's a correction to overheated market sentiment. In addition, the market heated discussion of the COMEX event began to weaken, price spreads return, but the COMEX position is still high, the event or repeated, pay attention to the change of warehouse receipts. Finally, combined with the recent fundamentals have been phased overdraft, high copper prices have brought certain negative feedback-encouraging supply and restraining part of the demand, and the intensity of transmission to the terminal is limited, the acceptance of the industrial chain is limited, which also leads to the accumulation effect to continue to the peak season, if the macro further weakens, the copper price may really enter the medium-term adjustment stage. Pay attention to the change of the position in the COME and LME markets. If the position weakens rapidly, it may represent that the early bulls begin to make a profit and stop profit; if the position is stable, the price may have a big repetition.
Nickel & stainless steel: macro and micro disturbances, high-level oscillations
1. Supply: nickel ore imports increased 91% to 2.942 million tons in April compared with the previous month, of which imports from the Philippines accounted for 87%, decreased by 9pct, 5x17, nickel ore port inventory increased by 3% to 7.318 million wet tons, and incoming volume increased by 3% to 993500 tons. Nickel production is expected to increase 4% to 25750 tons in May, 23% to 8126 tons in April, and 8% to 6878 tons in exports. China's nickel-iron (including nickel pig iron) imports increased 14% to 99000 tons in April, intermediate imports increased 154% to 24800 tons, and nickel matte imports increased 57% to 30900 tons. Imports of nickel sulfate rose 15% to 30, 000 tons in April from the previous month, while exports increased by 297% to 4000 tons.
2. Demand: in terms of stainless steel, on the inventory side, the social inventory of 5x23,78 samples is 1.0173 million tons, down 4.4% from the previous week, and the rigid demand of the market is dominated by procurement; in terms of imports and exports, China's stainless steel imports increased by 27% to 194000 tons in April from the previous month, of which imports from Indonesia increased by 35% to 166000 tons and exports increased by 2% to 393000 tons. On the demand side, the investment in real estate development / new construction area / construction area / completed area accumulated in April compared with the same period last year-9.8%, 24.6%, 10.8% and 20.4%, respectively; the output of freezers decreased by 20% to 2.41 million units from the previous month; the output of household refrigerators decreased by 6% to 9.34 million units from the previous month; the output of washing machines increased by 1% to 9.44 million beaches; and the output of air conditioners decreased by 2% to 30.33 million units. Car production dropped 16% month-on-month to 2.346 million units. In the new energy vehicle industry chain, the export of the three-yuan precursor increased by 15% to 14000 tons in April compared with the previous month, of which exports to South Korea accounted for 99.97%; imports increased by 55% to 345 tons, of which 81% were imported from Japan and 18% from South Korea. At the terminal, according to the Federation of passengers, the retail market for narrow passenger cars is expected to be about 1.65 million in May, a decrease of 5.3% over the previous year and an increase of 7.5% over the previous month. New energy retail is expected to be about 770000, up 13.7% from the previous month and 32.7% from the same period last year. Permeability is expected to further increase to 46.7%
3. Inventory: during the week, LME inventory decreased and increased by 2184 tons to 83988 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 1209 tons to 25699 tons, social inventory increased by 2812 tons to 38697 tons, and bonded area inventory remained at 4160 tons.
4. Viewpoint: the approval progress of Indonesian nickel mine quota has been advanced, but the quantity of approval can not meet the production capacity demand of primary nickel and secondary nickel (smm). The Indonesian Nickel Minerals Association (APNI) released a nickel reference mineral price (HMA) of US $17.472 per metric ton (dmt) in May 2024, up from 17.424,52 dry tons in April 2024, with a price increase of 47 dmt. Nickel prices continued to be strong. The intermediate product is affected by the LME nickel price, and the strong cost of nickel sulfate leads to a continuous rise in the price of nickel sulfate, while the contradiction of the industry chain lies in that the demand for nickel sulfate is weaker than expected after the ternary precursor is scheduled. In the short term, the contradictory factors in the industrial chain can not be resolved quickly, the price may show a high shock, in the week after the rapid decline in prices, guard against the risk of pullback.
Alumina & electrolytic aluminum: mood weakens, stops rising and returns to stability
Alumina futures shock rose, 24 main closed at 4093 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 8.3%; Shanghai aluminum concussion is weak, 24 main closing at 20855 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 0.7%.
1. Supply: the operating rate of alumina increased slightly by 0.34% to 81.74% during the week, mainly because the alumina plants in Guangxi and Guizhou completed maintenance and began to increase, while the construction in other areas remained stable. Shandong alumina plant will be overhauled within a month. Henan mines have entered the stage of preparation for resumption of production, the speed of resumption of mines in Shanxi is slightly slower, and mining in Guangxi is limited in the rainy season. Yunnan power supply continues to recover, and it is expected that under smooth conditions, it may continue to promote the return of 35-400000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and there is still no change in capacity in other areas. According to SMM, the domestic operating capacity of metallurgical grade alumina returned to 81.87 million tons in May, and the output increased to 6.953 million tons, up 4.1% from the same period last year. In May, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was repaired to 42.97 million tons, and the output increased to 3.64 million tons, an increase of 6.2% over the same period last year.
2. Demand: the operating rate of processing enterprises held steady at 64.9% in the downstream week. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum profiles is stable at 59.3%, the operating rate of aluminum cable is increased by 0.8% to 66%, the operating rate of aluminum foil is stable at 77.3%, and the operating rate of aluminum strip is stable at 77%. Baotou, Henan Linyi aluminum bar processing fees, Xinjiang Guangdong Wuxi down 10 yuan / ton; aluminum rod processing fees Guangdong stable, Inner Mongolia up 25 yuan / ton, Henan and Shandong increased 100 yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 increased 100 yuan / ton, ZLD104 and A356 increased 50 yuan / ton, ZLD102 increased 450 yuan / ton.
3, inventory: in terms of stock exchange, alumina weekly warehouse is 13280 to 169100 tons, Shanghai aluminum weekly warehouse is 13280 to 214900 tons, LME weekly warehouse is 34500 to 1.2178 million tons. In terms of social inventory, the weekly removal of alumina is 26000 to 99800 tons, the weekly accumulation of aluminum ingots is 20 to 767000 tons, and the weekly removal of aluminum bars is 12100 to 181100 tons.
4. Viewpoint: the impact of the news that the shipment of the Rio Tinto alumina plant was blocked is greater than the actual impact, and the alumina also fell after the emotional release. However, at present, there is still a strong support for the tight supply of alumina and the spot discount pattern. The Fed once again signaled a rise in interest rates, adding to heightened geo-risks, dampening previously high market sentiment. After the macro mood weakens in the stage, the fundamental drive of electrolytic aluminum is limited, and there are signs of stagnation. It is expected that aluminum prices will stop rising and stabilize, and there will even be weakening pressure. Pay attention to the speed of mine-end resumption and the promotion of real estate-related policies.
Zinc: zinc ore processing fees continue to fall zinc prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall
1. Supply:
Last week, SMM announced that the domestic zinc mine processing fee in June was 2700 yuan / metal ton, down 500 yuan / metal ton from the previous month, US $20 / dry ton zinc mine processing fee, and $15 / dry ton lower than the previous month. In terms of smelting, the rise in zinc prices and small metals alleviated the range of losses in smelting production, and domestic large and medium-sized smelting enterprises maintained production. In terms of imports, domestic refined zinc imports were 46000 tons in April, slightly exceeding expectations. With the closing of price comparison, refined zinc imports are expected to fall back to about 30, 000 tons.
Second, demand:
The operating rate of galvanized structural parts and die-casting alloy is weaker than the previous month, the operating rate of galvanized sheet and zinc oxide is oscillating, and the domestic zinc demand is at a weak level. Follow-up attention will be paid to the demand for zinc processing materials after the landing of the national debt of one trillion yuan. Spot aspect this week downstream rigid demand procurement, spot zinc ingots maintain discount quotation.
III. Inventory:
LME inventory decreased by 2100 tons to 212900 tons, up 71.56% from the same period last year; SMM inventories decreased by 1500 tons to 129100 tons, up 171.25% from the same period last year; and SMM inventories decreased by 2200 tons to 257200 tons, up 305.40% from the same period last year.
Fourth, strategic point of view:
Zinc ore processing fees continue to fall, ore supply is further tight, domestic smelting production is expected to be difficult to fully recover, there are policy expectations on the demand side, but consumption is gradually entering the off-season, zinc prices are expected to maintain a concussive trend for the time being, whether they can stand firm at 25000 yuan / ton, we need to continue to pay attention to whether the demand is not light in the off-season, and whether the supply will be transmitted to smelting to further reduce production.
Tin: global tin inventory rises and tin maintains volatility
1. Supply:
According to tin import and export data released by the Customs this week, domestic tin imports were 10200 tons in April 2024, down 55.44 percent from the previous month and 44.86 percent from the same period last year; in April, domestic imports of refined tin were 734 tons and exports were 1922 tons. Overseas, the cumulative turnover of the two major exchanges in Indonesia in May was 1725 tons, in line with market expectations. In terms of smelting, although the amount of imported ore has decreased significantly compared with the previous month, the smelting enterprises have not reduced production, and the operating rate has remained high.
Second, demand:
In May, tin prices remain high and volatile, downstream on-demand procurement, the spot tin ingot market discount has narrowed. In terms of downstream enterprise orders, some solder enterprises reported that the orders improved in May, but the improvement was not obvious, the operating rate of the lead-acid battery industry was stable, and some large factories maintained full production, driving the purchase of tin ingots in the industry to maintain a high level.
III. Inventory:
Myseel social inventory increased by 479 tons to 19372 tons, an increase of 77.04% over the same period last year. LME inventory increased by 10 tons to 4945 tons, an increase of 161.64% over the same period last year.
Fourth, strategic point of view:
The disturbance on the supply side of tin is still that Myanmar tin mine has not resumed production and Indonesian exports have not fully recovered, but on the demand side, the terminal electronics industry shows signs of recovery, but the transmission to the processing link is slow, so at present, tin is in a weak stage of supply and demand. under the condition that the overseas supply disturbance does not end, the extent of tin decline is expected to be very limited. in addition, the market is more concerned about whether the actual demand for tin can be greatly improved in the second half of the year. If there is a significant improvement, tin prices are expected to rise further.
Industrial silicon: supply pressurization, weak finishing
Industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly during the week, with 2407 of the main force closing at 12665 yuan / ton on the 24th, a weekly rise of 6.79%. Spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and the average reference price of Baichuan is 13335 yuan / ton, of which 553, 553 and 421 are stable at 12800 yuan / ton, 13150 yuan / ton and 13900 yuan / ton, respectively.
1. Supply: according to Baichuan, the weekly production of industrial silicon increased by 2350 tons to 92900 tons, the number of weekly furnaces increased by 10 to 345 units, and the furnace opening rate increased by 1.34% to 46.1%. Sichuan electricity prices have been reduced, except Ya'an, Liangshan, Aba, Leshan silicon plants have resumed production, Yunnan electricity prices have not been adjusted, still maintain the state of suspension. There is little change in the supply in the northwest, and some silicon plants in Xinjiang have been restarted, mainly for the early maintenance enterprises of the bingtuan park, while the silicon plants with higher electricity prices in Yidong Park have been shut down.
2, demand: organosilicon weak finishing, DMC weekly price down 100 yuan / ton to 13300-13900 yuan / ton, as the downstream began to read the bottom, single factory signing situation has improved, but the industrial surplus pressure has not been solved, it is difficult to get rid of the follow-up return to the weak general direction. Polysilicon continues to be under pressure, with weekly prices ranging from 1000 yuan / ton to 37000 yuan / ton, many links in the industry begin to fall to the cost line, the intention to sign orders downstream is not high, and the problem of high inventory in polysilicon enterprises is still there. At present, crystalline silicon enterprises have begun to overhaul on a large scale, and the decline in silicon prices is difficult to stop. DMC weekly production fell 600m tonnes to 41500 tonnes from the previous month, while weekly polysilicon production fell 550t to 44000 tonnes.
3. Inventory: the weekly inventory of the exchange accumulates from 2100 tons to 269700 tons. The weekly inventory of industrial silicon society is 2350 to 194600 tons, of which the factory warehouse is 2350 to 92600 tons. In the three major ports, Huangpu Port is stable at 38000 tons, Tianjin Port at 37000 tons, and Kunming Port at 27000 tons.
4. Viewpoint: there is no change in supply and demand in the current market, the oversupply is further highlighted after the resumption of production in southwest China, each link of crystal silicon maintains the rhythm of reducing procurement and removing inventory, the order of photovoltaic terminal is OK, and the profit is meager. With the warehouse receipt moving forward, the short-term futures market performance is slightly stronger, the spot supply is abundant, the profit is frequent, and there is no hope of rising. Fundamentals continue to weaken the cost of superimposed electricity prices move down, followed by the focus of silicon prices continue to move downward pressure, pay attention to the progress of Sichuan resumption of production and the scale of crystal silicon production.
Lithium carbonate: the supply and demand pattern tends to be loose, pay attention to whether there is a new driver.
1. Supply: weekly output decreased by 150 to 14074 tons, including 49 to 2683 tons for lithium extraction from salt lakes, 220 to 3679 tons for lithium mica, 50 to 6130 tons for spodumene, 11% to 21200 tons for lithium carbonate imports and 7% to 300 tons for exports in April. In April, lithium hydroxide exports decreased by 16% to 10800 tons, imports decreased by 44% to 600 tons, and lithium hexafluorophosphate exports decreased by 6% to 2071 tons.
2. Demand: in April, the export of ternary precursors increased by 15% to 14000 tons compared with the previous month, of which exports to South Korea accounted for 99.97%; imports increased by 55% to 345%, of which imports from Japan accounted for 81%. South Korea 18%; April ternary material exports decreased 0.4% to 6922 tons, of which exports to South Korea accounted for 69%; imports increased 17% to 6170 tons, of which imports from South Korea accounted for 96% Exports of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 55% to 63.63 tons in April compared with the previous month. 5But 24, the inventory of ternary material manufacturers decreased by 92 tons to 13999 tons, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 370 tons to 49260. At the terminal, according to the Federation of passengers, the retail market for narrow passenger cars is expected to be about 1.65 million in May, down 5.3% from last year and up 7.5% from the previous month. New energy retail is expected to be about 770000, up 13.7% from the previous month, up 32.7% from the same period last year, and the permeability is expected to further increase to 46.7%.
3. Inventory: 5gamma 23 lithium carbonate inventory increased 2.1% month-on-month to about 88900 tons, downstream inventory decreased 4.6% to about 21700 tons, other links increased 1.1% to about 16200 tons, smelter increased 5.6% to about 51000 tons; 5gamma 17 lithium carbonate sample social inventory decreased 4% to 26400 tons; 5max 24, warehouse receipt inventory 24352 tons.
4. Viewpoint: on the supply side, the supply increases in many aspects in May, the output + import is expected to increase rapidly, the weekly output decreases slightly compared with the previous month, and the reduction is mainly in the lithium extraction end of mica, and the lithium extraction performance of salt lake and spodumene is stable. On the demand side, the cathode materials were scheduled for repair in May, the demand for lithium salt slowed down again than expected, the market acceptance of high-priced goods was not high, and weekly downstream lithium salts and finished products all went to the warehouse. In terms of terminal sales, the Federation of passengers expects sales of new energy vehicles to increase month-on-month in May. Short-term price lack of strong drive will still shock operation, but it should be noted that the supply of loose pressure does not change, it is recommended to pay attention to the situation of the long Association at the end of the month, Yichun Lixun bidding sales.