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The volatility of the main stock indexes in the A-share market fell this week, and the effect of making money in the market has shrunk. Judging from the current market institutions, it is still an adjustment band in the short term, and with the confirmation of fundamental trends after recuperation, the main line of the stock market is expected to emerge.
From the perspective of allocation, the broad sense of high dividends, white horse stocks represented by high-end manufacturing, silver and other varieties are worthy of attention, in addition, Hong Kong stocks are also expected to open a double-click market for earnings and valuation repair.
Major events affecting future investment
The Securities Regulatory Commission formally issued the interim measures for the Administration of share reduction by shareholders of listed companies
On May 24, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued the interim measures for the Administration of share reduction by shareholders of listed companies and relevant supporting rules, which are intended to solve the outstanding problems faced by the supervision of share reduction, and further standardize the reduction behavior of major shareholders, especially controlling shareholders and actual controllers. Urge them to focus on the development and operation of the company, pay attention to the return level of investors, reduce the space for reducing arbitrage, and comprehensively close the possible loopholes in the rules. Strictly guard against all kinds of "detour reduction" behavior, weave a dense reduction system network.
Ministry of Commerce: the overall consumer market shows a sustained recovery trend
According to the news on the website of the Ministry of Commerce on May 24, the head of the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce said that in April, the total retail sales of consumer goodsWatchfamilyfeud.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 2% over the same period last yearWatchfamilyfeud.3%WatchfamilyfeudFrom January to April, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 15.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1 percent over the same period last year. Online consumption is also growing steadily. From January to April, online retail sales totaled 4.41 trillion yuan, up 11.5 percent over the same period last year, of which online retail sales of physical goods totaled 3.74 trillion yuan, up 11.1 percent, accounting for 23.9 percent of the total social zero.
Executive meeting of the State Council: adopted the opinions on expanding the Export of Cross-border E-commerce and promoting the Construction of overseas warehouses
On May 24, the executive meeting of the State Council was held to listen to the report on the work of administrative reconsideration, and to examine and approve the opinions on expanding the Export of Cross-border E-commerce and promoting the Construction of overseas warehouses. The meeting pointed out that the development of foreign trade new business type, such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses, is conducive to promoting the optimization of foreign trade structure, stable scale, and creating new advantages in international economic cooperation. We should actively cultivate cross-border e-commerce operators, encourage local governments to support traditional foreign trade enterprises to develop cross-border e-commerce based on their unique advantages, strengthen the training of cross-border e-commerce personnel, provide enterprises with more display and docking platforms, and continue to promote brand building.
The viewpoint of institutional investment in the future
Citic Securities: the steady upward trend will continue after the gradual verification of reality.
The market turns to a steady upward trend driven by the gradual improvement of policies, fundamentals and risk preference, and the verification of four factors is very important: first, the effect of the real estate policy shift and subsequent further policy responses need to be verified; second, the industrial policy aimed at optimizing the supply side needs time to gradually take effect, and third, the introduction of various reform guidelines is worth looking forward to. Fourth, the influence of complex geo-environment on market risk preference needs to be digested. In configuration, it is suggested to continue to focus on the theme of high-performance growth, low-wave dividend and activity, and reduce the round-robin game.
Haitong Securities: focus on mid-and high-end manufacturing in the medium term
Generally speaking, the overall attention of the middle and high-end manufacturing sectors is still in a reasonable range, the overcrowding of most sectors is still not high, and the excess earnings of the middle and high-end manufacturing sectors have converged since the end of March. Short-term market may be in a phased rest, after the rest as the fundamental trend is confirmed, the stock market main line opportunity is expected to emerge. The white horse represented by mid-term and high-end manufacturing may become the main line of the market. from a fundamental point of view, China's mid-and high-end manufacturing has the dual advantages of both supply and demand.
Shen Wanhongyuan: the broad sense of high dividend is more worthy of layout after the callback.
The high-cut and low market since late April has come to an end, the early market money-making effect has spread to a high level, the short-term lack of a new offensive direction, it is reasonable to shrink the money-making effect. At present, the performance-to-price ratio of the market only falls back to the middle, which is still the adjustment band in the short term, and the direction that is more worthy of bargain-seeking layout after the pullback is still the broad sense of high dividend. Continue to recommend electricity, home appliances and spirits, coal, oil, non-ferrous metals; real estate policy is also a high probability, real estate stocks wait for short-term performance-to-price ratio to improve the allocation.
Wells Fargo Fund: silver still has room to rise
Gold-silver ratio is in a historically high position, there is a certain downward repair space, superimposed fundamentals supply and demand tightening, silver will have more room to rise. Since 1980, the gold-silver ratio has remained in the range of 40-80 for 80% of the time, with an average of 66. When the gold-silver ratio is higher than this range, the gold price usually experiencesWatchfamilyfeudAfter a sharp rise, silver may follow and rise higher than gold, pushing the ratio back to normal. Looking back, we can pay attention to the warming signals of PMI data in the manufacturing industry at home and abroad, and the industrial attribute of silver is gradually enhanced or catalyses the further decline of the gold-silver ratio center.
Yi Mi Fund: the dividend market may have a periodic correction, and we still need to keep a high degree of attention.
Dividend investment has been a very good investment strategy in recent quarters. The good performance of the dividend is highly consistent with the continuous decline of the risk-free rate of return. In the future, with the stabilization of the real estate industry and the steady upward trend of the economy, the risk-free rate of return may also usher in an upward trend to a certain extent, and dividend investment may have periodic adjustments. Dividend investment is of great significance to ordinary investors. It is suggested that investors should pay close attention to dividend investment.
HSBC Jinxin Fund: Hong Kong stocks are expected to start a double-click market for earnings and valuation repair
Looking forward to the future, the core element of Hong Kong stocks is earnings growth, liquidity is expected to usher in a sustained improvement in the middle of the year. Under the background of the intensification of geo-friction, the shift of Fed policy and the differentiation of domestic industry recovery this year, Hong Kong stocks may show the characteristics of high volatility and look forward to a gradual pick-up in earnings expectations under the background of fiscal strength. The downward trend of the interest rate end in the second half of the year has been established, and the liquidity pressure on Hong Kong stocks is expected to ease first, opening a double-click market for earnings and valuation repair.