Source: all plastic federations
fiveFishinfrenzymegaways. 24
Core data and viewpoints
Supply and demand
Upstream PVC starts:
For the week ended 23 MayFishinfrenzymegawaysWith the intensification of maintenance efforts in mid to late MayFishinfrenzymegawaysThe upstream start-up load dropped rapidly to 73Fishinfrenzymegaways.13%, month-on-month-5.19%, year-on-year-1.32%. Next week (5.18-5.24), the upstream operating rate is expected to rise slightly by 74% or 75%. The upstream load is expected to pick up faster since June.
Production plan:
In 2023, Xinfa 40, Huayi 40 and Wanhua 40 were put into production, Julong 40W negative, Zhonggu 300000 restarted in early November 2023, with a total of nearly 1.9 million put into production or restart.
2.2 million tons of production capacity may be put into production in the whole year from 2024 to 2025, of which: Zhenyang 30W will be put into production in the first quarter; Jintai (planned for 60W) will be put into trial production in 300000 in May, mass production in early June, and Bay 20W in the fourth quarter.
The plastic Federation investigates the demand in the lower reaches of South China:
In the week of 24.5.18-24.5.24, the start-up load in the lower reaches of South China increased significantly, mainly due to individual enterprises increasing the load this week to hedge the parking inventory at the end of the month. This week, the load in the lower reaches of South China is 48.38%, month-on-month + 3%, year-on-year + 3.16%. After the opening of the epidemic last year, a lot of demand was realized around the first quarter. The order for the start of pipe profiles was better in March, but the civil PVC pipe became lighter in mid-April, so the current start-up is better than in late May last year.
Warehousing logistics
This week, the change of social inventory increased, and the overall total inventory decreased: East China increased, South China decreased, southwest changed little, upstream decreased. South China shipping declined due to recent upstream overhaul, and Wanhua and Huayi goods sources squeezed northwest share, northwest upstream reduced shipments to South China consumption areas (the following East and South China data are taken from Zhuochuang).
Inventory (South China + East China + Southwest) is estimated to be 580700 tons, month-on-month + 2200 tons, year-on-year + 116100 tons.
Inventory (South China + East China + Southwest + upstream) is estimated to be 916800 tons, month-on-month-34100 tons, year-on-year + 52800 tons.
Import and export
The import is semi-closed, the profit is-373and the loss is greatly narrowed. According to the estimation of CFR790 in Northeast Asia, the cost of import duty payment is about 6580.
The export theory is closed, and the profit is-40km / m 80 (calculated according to the upstream ex-factory price 5670, the export income is compared with the export cost, northwest ex-factory price + freight to Tianjin port).
The number of new export orders in the week of May 24th is slightly better, about 1.7-18000, which is the general medium level (the average value of nearly one year is 17000, and the average value of nearly two years is 19000), and it is mainly the order of ethylene method, but not much of calcium carbide method. The export evaluation of Tianjin Port by calcium carbide method is FOB725. International sea freight continues to rise, from Tianjin Port to India $3200-3400, Tianjin Port to Ho Chi Minh $750,850 to Haiphong $775.
The freight rate of China's calcium carbide export to India FOB725+ is 115,840, which has no advantage over the international mainstream quotation CFR830~850. There is no volume for domestic exports, and only the basic volume is maintained. Although India has more procurement demand in mid-to-late May, due to worries about the uncertainty of BIS policy and the majority of Chinese mainland exports are FOB, due to high sea freight rates, India turned to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan for procurement, the volume of Chinese mainland decreased. Recently, some bulk carriers go to India, which is relatively cheap but small in size.
India implemented the BIS policy on September 1st, and local importers may increase their purchases in May, taking into account the forward shipping, the June-September monsoon season and the uncertainty of the BIS policy after September. However, industry insiders said that according to past experience, the implementation of India's BIS policy may continue to be delayed than previously announced.
India, March 26, 2024: the authorities want to verify whether China has dumping problems during the period from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023.
Valuation
Chlor-alkali valuation:
Medium slightly higher, liquid alkali relatively stable, liquid chlorine sustained high shock, thermal coal rebounded, calcium carbide partial drop, calcium carbide marginal device profit: 110
Purchased calcium carbide PVC cost (sharing 0.47 electrolysis cost): Shandong 6526; Inner Mongolia 5584; purchased calcium carbide PVC profit: Shandong-705; Inner Mongolia 85
Calcium carbide profit:-140,51 (calcium carbide rising, Lanchan high)
Comprehensive profit of Shandong marginal plant: 0.75alkali + 1PVC) 110,0.88 liquid chlorine + alkali): 235 (liquid chlorine)
Comprehensive profit of marginal units in North China (purchased calcium carbide): 161 (PVC+0.75 caustic soda, but the actual industrial chain is long, generally there is no loss as a whole)
Comprehensive profit of Northwest marginal equipment (Ningxia, self-produced calcium carbide + purchased national grid electricity): 246 (PVC+0.68 alkali)
Comprehensive profit of Northwest Plant (Inner Mongolia, self-produced electricity + self-produced calcium carbide): 1084 (PVC+0.75 tablet alkali)
Northwest Ningxia PVC folding surface safety margin: 5407 (static estimation based on current caustic soda and calcium carbide)
Referenc
Price
Reference price:
The producing area of Mongolian coal is 5500 VI 665 minutes 30; Orchid carbon: 940, change 0
Shandong caustic soda 32% 740, fold 2312, change + 10, fold 100 + 31
Inner Mongolia tablet alkali: 2800, change 0
Liquid chlorine Shandong: 275jue Rue 200
Calcium carbide Shandong: 321550; calcium carbide Inner Mongolia: 2750
Main
Logic
Lack of strong drive on the supply and demand side, capital behavior, market sentiment superimposed by recent real estate benefits and upstream maintenance
Summary
1. The inventory contradiction is still prominent, the absolute value is high, and the speed of removing inventory is slow. The upstream start-up decreased obviously due to maintenance, which is a quarterly routine maintenance.
2. The export supports the bottom but there is no obvious drive. The number of export orders this week is at a moderate level. We are the net export cart of PVC, the international sea freight has risen sharply, the commodity prices of the countries that are bad for exports, and the pressure on domestic trade has increased. At the same time, because of high freight rates, markets such as Africa may be replaced by low production costs in the United States. India's demand has maintained a good growth rate, and domestic PVC exports are still expected to maintain a good level to regulate domestic supply.
3. The valuation is slightly more neutral. From the point of view of the cost and profit of the industry, due to the high level of caustic soda and liquid chlorine, profits have been improving in recent months. At present, the profit of the chlor-alkali edge plant in Shandong and Hebei is more than 100; the profit of the northwest marginal plant is 20000300; the profit of the fully integrated enterprise in Inner Mongolia is about 1100.
Due to the recent sharp rebound in the stimulus of real estate policy, it has soared this week due to the misleading purchase news of China Mobile (regular purchases, basically every year and shrinking this year). 09 contract has a strong financial attribute and imagination space far from the delivery time, and the long-term weak influence of fundamentals decreases. After all, the supply and demand side is not the only factor in the rise and fall. Capital attention, changes in market sentiment, macro policies, technical chart signals, the main operating methods, and so on may affect the price rise and fall.
The current basis has weakened significantly, with-270 to-320 at the beginning of the week in South China; on Friday, there were even-350 to-400. Spot follow-up is slow, social inventories are difficult to remove, and downstream start-ups are expected to improve, but reality is weak. In early June, Jintai produced 300,000 yuan in mass production, and upstream start-ups gradually picked up. Under the premise of high inventories + weakened maintenance + average exports, it is unlikely that they will continue to rise sharply. With the outflow of funds on Friday, the correction in futures prices is temporarily supported by 6400, but market sentiment has not completely subsided, and the short-term or correction is not large.
With the recovery of upstream construction in June, if exports continue to be tepid, the margin of supply and demand may still weaken further.
focus
attention
1. Changes in market sentiment; 2. Changes in V positions;3. Changes in upstream maintenance and load
