News summary
Digestion of South American soybean supplyplaycandycrushsodasaga, oil supply and demand are neutral; pay attention to the weather impact during the northern hemisphere oilseed planting and growing season. Drought in the United States, Canada and Australia may cause oil growth, but the increase is limited in the context of increased international palm oil production. It is recommended to operate oil in multiple bands to avoid rushing and chasing after more, and consider opportunities for short-selling oil and meal.
Newsletter text
[Soybean supply in South America has eased, and international weather has become a key driving force] The supply pressure on the South American soybean market is currently in the stage of gradual digestion, and the domestic oil supply and demand situation remains neutral. The market's attention is gradually turning to international weather factors, which are expected to have an impact on the market.
[Critical period for oilseed sowing and growth in the Northern Hemisphere. The market focuses on new area and weather trading] Oil crops in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing period from May to June, followed by June to August being a critical period for their growth. Currently, market participants are paying attention to the planting area of new works and weather factors, both of which have become the focus of transactions.
[The weather conditions in the main producing areas are attracting attention, and drought may boost oil prices] Although the weather conditions in the main producing areas are not perfect at this stage, no major problems have occurred. Market participants need to continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in these areas, as the emergence of drought conditions may become a potential factor driving up oil prices.
[Fund dynamics and macro sentiment have a significant impact on oil meal prices] Currently, capital liquidity is strong, and the impact of fund activity and macroeconomic sentiment on the oil meal market cannot be ignored. These factors may influence the short-term fluctuations in oil meal prices to a certain extent.
[It is recommended to be cautious in operation and avoid chasing gains and killing losses] In the current market environment, investors are advised to remain cautious when conducting band operations on oil products, and should not blindly chase after rapidly rising markets. At the same time, there is still the possibility that the vegetable brown 2501 and bean brown 2409 contracts will strengthen. Investors are advised to choose an appropriate opportunity to carry out band short operations when the oil-meal ratio rebounds and stagflation.