playjokerpoker| Zheng Yanjian| External interest rates are difficult to fall, and A-shares are temporarily under pressure

editor2024-05-26 02:30:147Business

This week, A shares surged higher and fell backplayjokerpoker, the decline was large in the last two days, which eventually caused the major stock indexes to record a large decline in the weekly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.5 percent throughout the weekplayjokerpoker.07% to 3,088.87 points; the Shenzhen Composite Index, GEM Composite Index, Science and Technology Innovation 50, and Beijing Securities fell by 2.84%, 2.80%, 3.61%, and 0.80% respectively in 50 weeks.

The rise in A-shares at the beginning of the week was an inertia increase. The main reason was naturally that the property market had recently introduced many major positive benefits, such as reducing down payment, lowering commercial mortgage interest rates, and introducing policies for purchasing and purchasing existing new houses. However, in the first three days of this week, the stock index only moved sideways after surging higher, and the turnover did not increase significantly. The market still seems to hold a wait-and-see attitude towards many policies on the property market. In the second half of this week, A-shares adjusted continuously on Thursday and Friday as market expectations for external interest rate cuts weakened significantly.

Judging from the latest market expectations, the market currently only expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once during the year, which is far from the six interest rate cuts expected at the beginning of the year. Coincidentally, this week, the market's expectations for the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to cut interest rates have also weakened. If the overall interest rate cut process in the West tends to slow down, our room for further easing will be more or less limited. In this case, A shares will usually bear some pressure.

On Friday evening, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Shares Reduction by Shareholders of Listed Companies" and relevant supporting rules, and also revised the "Rules for the Administration of Shares of the Company Held by Directors, Supervisors and Senior Management of Listed Companies and Their Changes".

The above news should give a slight boost to A-shares next week. In fact, such good things have emerged one after another in recent months. The biggest one should be the "New China Nine Principles". The above-mentioned measures related to reducing holdings are actually implementing the New China Nine Principles, so a large part of the good things have been absorbed in advance.

Recently, utility stocks such as electricity have performed well, and some other varieties that are defensive or have price increases have also performed well. This should imply that the market's view of the overall economy is still relatively conservative for the time being.

Foreign investment may have a more positive view of China's economy and stock market, which can basically be seen from the recent inflow and outflow data of foreign capital. Taking this week as an example, foreign investment was balanced in the past few days. Even though there was a net outflow of foreign investment on Thursday and Friday, the daily outflow was still relatively moderate. At a time when policies far exceed expectations, the general tone for future property market stabilization should be basically set. Personally, I feel that this may be one of the important reasons why foreign investors 'views on China's economy and A-shares have improved.

The short-term trend of A-shares is weak, and there will generally be a inertia decline next week. However, after two consecutive days of adjustment, the subsequent momentum of short positions should not be too strong. In terms of operation, investors are advised to continue to hold shares and wait and see.

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playjokerpoker| Zheng Yanjian| External interest rates are difficult to fall, and A-shares are temporarily under pressure

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