ATFX: the importance of the economic data to be released this week from high to low are: the Fed's beige book, the US PCE price index annual rate, Australia's April CPI annual rate, followed by a detailed interpretation:
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At 2: 00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release a beige book on the state of the economy, which is expected to have a significant impact on the market. The Fed's beige book is released eight times a year and is compiled by reports from 12 local Fed (Boston Fed, New York Fed, Philadelphia Fed, etc.). The content is mainly qualitative evaluation, but there are few quantitative statistics. The last beige book was released on April 18 (Beijing time), in which 10 regions had moderate economic growth, while economic activity in the other two regions remained unchanged, and the dollar index closed with a long negative line. Two big data released this month, the non-farm payrolls report and April CPI data, both suggest signs of weakness in the US economy. Judging from this, the areas where there is no significant economic growth in this beige book will increase, which will be bad for the dollar index.
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At 20: 30 this Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the PCE price index for April at an annual rate of 2.Crashbandicootnsanetrilogyps3.7%, the expected value is the same. In April, the annual rate of core PCE price index was released at the same time, with a previous value of 2.Crashbandicootnsanetrilogyps3.8%, the expected value is the same. According to historical data, before November 2023, the annual rate of core PCE price index in the United States was in a state of sharp decline, falling by 1.57 percent in eight months. In the last four months, PCE data entered a horizontal period, with the largest decline of only 0.141 percentage points. We believe that even if this data release is not the same as the previous value, the gap between the two will be relatively small, expected to be less than 0.2 percentage points. Due to the reduced volatility of the PCE data, the impact of the data release on the dollar index is not expected to be significant.
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At 9:30 on Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release an unquarterly CPI annual rate of 3.5% in April, compared with an expected value of 3.4% and an expected decline of 0.1%. When making monetary policy decisions, the RBA pays more attention to quarterly CPI annual rate data rather than monthly CPI annual rate data, because the former is more stable. Therefore, the release of monthly CPI data in Australia often does not have a significant impact on AUDUSD. Moreover, from the historical data, Australia's monthly CPI data have shown obvious characteristics of volatility in the last four months, with the value from December last year to February this year stabilizing at 3.4%, rising only in March this year.Crashbandicootnsanetrilogyps30.1 percent. The market expects monthly CPI to fall at an annual rate of 0.1 per cent, meaning Australian inflation will return to a stable level of 3.4 per cent. If the CPI data does not continue to move towards 2 per cent, it is highly likely that the RBA will restart its policy of raising interest rates to meet its inflation target, a move that will benefit the Australian dollar.
ATFX risk reminder, exemption clause, special statement: there are risks in the market, investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the only reference. Analysts' views are subject to change at different times and are updated without notice.
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