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Citic Securities: after the reality is gradually verified, the steady upward trend will continue.
The market enters the stock state, the global capital rebalance impulse to cool down, based on the expected repair of the market is over, the reality gradually verified, the steady upward trend will continue, the configuration suggested to continue to focus on high-performance growth, low-wave dividends and active theme layout, reduce the rotation game. On the one hand, the liquidity situation of the market no longer supports the market driven by purely expected repair, the room for further expansion of active private equity is limited, ETF continues to show a small outflow, overseas risky assets are being repaired, and the impulse of global capital rebalancing is cooling. On the other hand, the market turns to a steady upward trend driven by the gradual improvement of policies, fundamentals and risk preference, and the verification of four factors is very important: first, the effect of the real estate policy shift and subsequent further policy responses need to be verified; second, the industrial policy aimed at optimizing the supply side needs time to gradually take effect, and third, the introduction of the reform guidelines of the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee is worth looking forward to. Fourth, the influence of complex geo-environment on market risk preference needs to be digested.
Haitong strategy: the short-term market or the white horse represented by high-end manufacturing in the middle stage of periodic recuperation may become the main line.
Since the market rebounded from the bottom on February 5, the industry has rotated faster, and the high-end manufacturing has a more obvious performance in this round of rebound. Well, after this round of rise, what is the current attention of the mid-and high-end manufacturing industry?Crashbandicootsmash? This paper analyzes the current market concern of the middle and high-end manufacturing industry from the dimensions of valuation, institutional positions and excess returns, and discusses the follow-up interpretation of the relevant sectors. In a number of previous reports, we pointed out that the current white horse stocks are undervalued as a whole. In the medium-term dimension, with the improvement of market capital and fundamentals, white horse stocks are expected to become the main line of the stock market. Inside the white horse, the mid-and high-end manufacturing with better fundamentals may become the brightest direction of performance. Since 2ax 5, the market has paid more attention to mid-and high-end manufacturing, so where is the current attention of mid-and high-end manufacturing sectors? This will be analyzed below.
Livelihood strategy: return to the main line
The overall situation has been decided this year, and the main line has always been there. When the trading based on the "big reversal" of the environment gradually fades, the real pricing of the return will return to the stage, and the convergence of the previous excess returns creates room for the future market of the annual main line assets. Resource products are still our priority recommended direction: oil, copper, coal, and resource transportation (oil transportation, dry bulk, etc.), aluminum, precious metals. In the "de-financialization" world of the financial sector, if the tail risk is resolved, the combination of rising profits + killing valuations over the past decade will be transformed into opportunities for profit bottoming out + valuation repair, and it is recommended to pay attention to banks and insurance; in an environment where domestic economic flows are repaired but enterprises are faced with incremental profits, dividend assets are worth allocating: railways, electricity, roads and gas.
Huajin strategy: there may still be a configuration opportunity for TMT before the rebound is finished.
At present, there may still be configuration opportunities for TMT in the short term. In retrospect, the current point of view is as follows: (1) the development of new quality productivity, catalysis of overseas industries and loose domestic liquidity make it possible for TMT to be allocated from May to June. First, in terms of policy and industrial catalysis, June may continue to appear: first, domestic policies, scientific and technological innovation and other related policies may continue to be introduced and landed before the third Plenary session of the Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee in July; secondly, in terms of industrial catalysis, the average profit growth rate of the seven overseas technology giants in the first quarter is as high as 78.Crashbandicootsmash0.2%, iterative updates of overseas AI models, AI mobile phones, AI PC and other new products are likely to accelerate the landing. Second, keep it loose in terms of liquidity. (2) the expectation of economic repair and the possible rebound of the reported performance of TMT and the catalysis of science, technology and innovation policies make there are certain opportunities for the allocation of TMT in July. First, in terms of economic and profit fundamentals, the economy may continue to repair in July, and the reported performance of TMT may pick up somewhat. Second, in terms of policy, the July Politburo meeting and the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee may further highlight policies such as scientific and technological innovation.
Central Plains strategy: defense industry leading the way, investors are advised to focus on investment opportunities in power and other industries in the short term.
On Friday, the A-share market encountered obstacles and small shocks, the early stock index fell after opening low, the Prev encountered resistance near 3130 points in intraday trading, and the stock index fell back in the afternoon. Intraday electricity, power grid equipment, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, oil and coal and other industries performed better; real estate, military industry, semiconductors and computer equipment and other industries performed weakly, and the Prev basically showed a small concussion throughout the day. At present, the average price-to-earnings ratio of Shanghai Composite Index and gem index is 13.30 times and 30.51 times respectively, which is below the median level in the past three years, and the market valuation is still in a low area, which is suitable for medium-and long-term layout. The turnover of the two cities on Friday was 769.2 billion yuan, below the median daily turnover in the past three years. The release of the new Nine articles will promote the maturity of the market and boost the market's long-term confidence. The export data exceeded expectations, indicating that overseas demand is resilient and China's products are highly competitive. Prices have also recovered to some extent as the decline in food prices has narrowed. The management has introduced a combination of real estate policies, which is expected to stabilize real estate investment, boost domestic demand and promote economic stabilization. Us inflation has fallen and interest rate cuts are expected to come ahead of schedule. With the implementation of domestic favorable policies, market risk preference is expected to increase, the current internal and external environment as a whole is conducive to the continued stabilization and improvement of the market, and the overall stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward pattern in the future. at the same time, we still need to pay close attention to the changes of policy, capital and external factors. We recommend that investors pay short-term attention to investment opportunities in sectors such as electricity, power grid equipment, oil and coal, and utilities.
Shen Wanhongyuan: lack of new offensive direction in the short term, bargain-seeking layout, broad sense of high dividend
After the pullback, the direction of the more worthy bargain-hunting layout is still the broad sense of high dividend, continue to recommend electricity, home appliances and liquor, coal, oil, non-ferrous metals. The boosting effect of overseas catalysis on A-share technology stocks has been limited, and it is reiterated that the condition for an effective rebound in science and technology is domestic industrial catalysis. There is a high probability that there is a later move in the real estate policy, and the real estate stocks are waiting for the short-term performance-to-price ratio to be improved.
Soochow Strategy: what is the sustainability of the current round of commodity and resource stocks?
The logic of supply is more to drive the strong price of the past period of time, and demand is the key to the next round of market. The pick-up in global demand in the first quarter has been reflected in this round of price increases, with a new round of market waiting for the expected improvement after the resumption of the global credit cycle. But the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in the second quarter will bring the global manufacturing economy back to the margin, and the global manufacturing PMI has also fallen back to the contraction range in April. At present, China is at a critical time for the relaxation of the real estate chain, and the improvement of the real estate industry is the key to the recovery of demand in our country. Therefore, the continuous improvement in demand has to wait for new signals, and the performance of goods may be divided. Looking to the future, the rising prices of non-ferrous commodities wait for more clues of demand, such as the sustainable boom in the global manufacturing industry, the policy of replacing old for new ones to promote the consumption of household appliances and new energy vehicles, the development of emerging technologies has a real demand-driven effect on energy, metals and other resources, and the improvement of real estate in China. If the demand expectation is difficult to improve continuously, the non-ferrous metals represented by copper may face a certain correction risk.
Bank of China Strategy: grasp the long window in the second quarter
The market is still in the long window in the second quarter. This week, the General Secretary presided over a symposium of enterprises and experts and delivered an important speech in Jinan, Shandong Province. this is the third symposium for entrepreneurs chaired by the General Secretary after 2018 and 2020, and after the first two symposiums, there has been a relatively clear shift in domestic economic policy, whether it is the real estate market, the capital market or the policy attitude towards private enterprises. Therefore, on the eve of the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee, this entrepreneur forum may have a certain pointing effect on market expectations. We believe that the current market is still in the long window period, the profit side reported performance growth rate is likely to increase significantly, exports supported by external demand is expected to maintain a high boom, valuation side, policy attitude to support domestic demand to gradually repair, the market is still in the long window period on the eve of the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee. Style is expected to usher in diffusion from both ends of the barbell, domestic demand related sectors are expected to usher in a phased valuation repair.
Everbright Strategy: how to view the current market transaction congestion?
The market is expected to fluctuate upward, and high dividends and pro-cyclical are worthy of long-term attention. Recently, positive real estate policies have occurred frequently, and the A-share market is expected to fluctuate upwards. Since May, weak fundamentals have led to volatility in the market as a whole, and real estate is one of the drag items of weak economic fundamentals. The introduction of the real estate policy will help to promote the high-quality development of the real estate market, boost market confidence and promote the recovery of market sentiment. The A-share market is expected to continue its strong performance. In the allocation direction, high dividends and pro-cyclical are worthy of long-term attention. Under the current market environment, the high dividend sector is worthy of long-term allocation. The policy is also actively guiding dividends, which will boost the situation in the high dividend sector. However, the trading congestion of the high dividend sector is currently on the high side and can be allocated after the share price or trading congestion falls. In addition, the domestic economy is expected to continue to repair in the future, and the pro-cyclical plate is also worthy of attention.
King's strategy: the decline of uncertainty is the key driving force for the rise of China's stock market.
Chinese stock market strategy: spring is still there after winter. The apparent reason for the correction in the stock market this week is the growing concern about geo-risk. We believe that although the external geography is still grim, the market has not given too much expectation in the past two to three years. More importantly, we should see that the uncertainty within the economy and society is declining, which is the core factor driving the current round of market conditions. Unlike most prudent consensus, we believe that expectations are no longer revised down and uncertainty is reduced, which is the key driving force for the Chinese stock market to rise. Different from the situation in which the stock market has high expectations and high positions but optimistic expectations continue to fail in the past 23 years, after years of adjustment and stock market fluctuations in early 24 years, the stock market shows the characteristics of low expectations, low expectations and low positions. A consensus of low consensus implies potentially unexpected room for return and a more positive response to marginal good. The central finance turns to expansion, the real estate policy points to the crux of the problem, the domestic demand policy is more active, and a new round of system reform and innovation path is about to emerge. Although there is still behavior and thinking inertia under the great uncertainty in the past, it is manifested by weak data and repeated stock market. However, the marginal combination of RMB currency stability, domestic demand policy strength and rising reform expectations makes China's asset logic smooth. Investment opportunities in the middle of the year, dare to reverse the layout, the stock market volatility rose.