skeeball| Supply and demand in the lithium battery market are widening: the supply side has increased to 60000 tons, and demand growth has slowed down

editor2024-05-26 18:30:575Academia

Newsletter summary

Lithium futures 2407 closed at 107600 yuan / ton on Friday, down 1% a week.Skeeball.75%. Lithium carbonate spot demand weakens, supply-side overcapacity, inventory increase, cost acceptance of high-price supply is low. The output of lithium hydroxide has increased slightly, facing the problem of raw materials, and the price is stable. Cobalt market supply exceeds demand, the market is in the doldrums, and demand recovery is slow. Investors suggest wait-and-see or interval operation, pay attention to the market dynamics.

Text of news flash

[lithium futures prices show a downward trend] Lithium carbonate futures market observed a downward trend this week, with the main contract 2407 closing at 107600 yuan / ton, a record 1.75%SkeeballThe weekly decline was as high as 168876 hands.

[both trading and position are active] as of Friday, the position of 2407 of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 4383 to 168876, while the total position of all contracts increased by 2120 to 284945. At the same time, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 300 hands, to a total of 24352 hands.

[spot market affected by futures fluctuations] Lithium battery spot prices have been weak recently, the correlation between futures prices has been enhanced, and market trading has been active after the market has fallen.

[oversupply is still the main cause] although some enterprises have suspended production due to environmental protection, production in the Qinghai Salt Lake region has gradually increased with the warmer weather, and Chilean exports have increased by 22900 tons and have an impact on the domestic market in terms of price. Domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to rise to more than 60000 tons in May, and the supply side is expected to be more relaxed.

[inventory increase, demand decrease] Lithium carbonate stocks increased from last week to 88900 tons, including smelter stocks of 51000 tons, downstream stocks of 21700 tons and other stocks of 16200 tons, up slightly from last week's total of 1836 tons. Due to the decline in terminal demand, some cathode material factories and battery factories have reduced production, and the demand for lithium carbonate has weakened, resulting in inventory accumulation.

[downstream demand growth slows] in mid-to late May, the growth rate of downstream demand for lithium batteries slowed, the market divergence over price fluctuations increased, and some enterprise orders were close to saturation, while others were pessimistic about the future, with demand lagging behind and maintaining only basic demand.

skeeball| Supply and demand in the lithium battery market are widening: the supply side has increased to 60000 tons, and demand growth has slowed down

[cost-end price stability] Lithium ore market prices have remained stable this week, with spodumene 6.0% (CIF arriving in Hong Kong) in the range of US $1060-1170 / ton, African SC 5% prices in the range of US $460-500 / tonne, and lithium mica raw ore prices at 2150 yuan / ton. Lithium salt factories due to cost pressure to compress profit margins, downstream acceptance of high-priced goods remains low.

[profit margins are under pressure] profits this week have changed little compared with last week, profit margins for own ores and salt lakes have been compressed, lithium salt factories strive to maintain prices, and downstream manufacturers are only willing to meet rigid demand and are unwilling to pay for high prices.

[lithium hydroxide production slightly increased] Lithium hydroxide production increased by 52 tons to 6250 tons this week, as the market worried that procurement costs were too high, resulting in a reduction in the number of enterprises that could carry out production. Most refineries choose to stop production or resell finished products to make a profit.

[cobalt market oversupply] domestic production of cobalt tetroxide and cobalt sulfate this week is the same as last week, and the market downturn has led some manufacturers to choose to reduce production or stop production. The supply of cobalt salt exceeds the demand in the short term, and the inventory pressure continues.

[cobalt market demand has no obvious fluctuation] the market demand for cobalt trioxide and cobalt sulfate did not change significantly on Thursday compared with last week. Terminal demand is still in the doldrums, battery factory demand is limited, and energy storage market demand recovery is slow.

[cobalt cost and inventory pressure] Cobalt tetroxide cost shock adjustment, international market price downward consolidation. The inventory of cobalt products increased slightly compared with last week, the downstream stock of raw materials is limited, manufacturers deliver more existing orders, inventory pressure still exists.

[cobalt market price remains stable] the market prices of cobalt tetroxide and cobalt oxide are the same as last week, the price of cobalt sulfate has risen slightly, the price of cobalt chloride has gone up, the market fluctuation is limited, and the demand side has not improved significantly.

[risk factors need to be paid attention to] the growth rate of the consumer side slows down, the import of lithium ore increases obviously, and the demand in the lower reaches of the cobalt industry chain maintains rigid demand, which requires continuous attention to market trends, including Australian mine auctions, environmental impact and downstream production.

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