Gundlach's predictions of the exact timing of the recession have been inaccurate.
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of investment management firm DoubleLine Capital, has said since at least late last year that the U.S. economy could experience a recessionnftfreetoplayandearn, recentlynftfreetoplayandearnHe talked about his own view again.
In an interview with Fox business channel Mornings with Maria, Gunlach was asked if he still believed the U.S. economy would fall into recession, and his answer was "Of course." However, Gundlach said it was "difficult to say" whether a recession would come this year, but transcripts of interviews showed he said "yes" when talking about a recession that could come in 2024 or 2025.
Gundlach is known as the "new debt king" and considered one of the most influential figures in financial markets, but like many others, his predictions of the exact timing of the recession have been less accurate. There were reports in September and November last year that he said a recession could come in the first half of this year, but the U.S. economy maintained its growth momentum, although that may be beginning to change.
Data released by the Conference Board on Friday, May 17 showed that leading economic indices fell for a second consecutive month in April, and high inflation, higher interest rates and rising household debt ratios may continue to weigh on the U.S. economy this year. At the same time, the May New York State Business Conditions Index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last Wednesday weakened further, falling to-15.nftfreetoplayandearn.6, which is the sixth consecutive month that the index has fallen below zero, indicating that business activity is deteriorating.
"I think the numbers released over the past week are quite worrying, I mean... a month ago, if you broke down the economy into six or seven major sectors, they were all growing positively, and suddenly there are more negative numbers than positive numbers," Gunlach said in an interview.
He added: "And positive numbers don't perform as well, so, yes, I think people who are used to the lifestyle brought about by government money printing are adjusting their lifestyles, they no longer receive government-issued checks, they're swiping their credit cards, and credit card bills are starting to get bigger and bigger."
Financial markets were relatively stable on Tuesday in the absence of major data releases. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, while yields on two-year, 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed slightly lower for the first time in four trading days.
Wen| Vivian Lou Chen
edit| Guo Liqun
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